Market Rumors Lead to Pessimistic Sentiment, Iron Ore Prices See Expanded Decline [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5, down 1.43% WoW. Traders sold goods following the market trend; steel mills cautiously waited and observed, with general purchase willingness. The market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 780-785 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt WoW; in Hebei, the transaction price for PB fines was 790-795 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt WoW.

Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments totaled 35.87 million mt, up 2.57 million mt WoW, an increase of 7.7%. This week, Australia's shipments grew significantly; however, shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream sources declined slightly. SMM's iron ore arrivals in China totaled 26.88 million mt, down 340,000 mt WoW, a slight decrease of 1.2%. Iron ore supply continued to exert force. However, on the demand side, SMM estimated that the daily average hot metal production saw a larger WoW decrease this week. In addition, market news today indicated that the negotiations between Zhongkuang and BHP are expected to end soon. If the negotiations conclude, restricted products may suddenly increase in volume, raising market concerns about potential selling pressure, suppressing ore prices to trend weakly. Considering that macro expectations still provide support this week, ore prices have limited downside room and may continue their fluctuating trend in the doldrums in the short term.